COMPANY / RESEARCH
Research & Insights
FEATURED Biopharma’s Public Probability
The state and future of prediction markets in drug development. What happens when expectations about clinical and regulatory success become publicly visible.
LATEST
RESEARCH 22 Jul When companies promise a clinical trial result, more than half miss the date A study of 681 trials on how often result dates slip, and in which direction. ANNOUNCEMENT 16 Jul AppliedXL partners with Kalshi on verifiable resolution infrastructure Press release · 4 min INTERACTIVE 15 Jul From public record to market resolution How one prediction market gets resolved, walked through a drug-trial example. INTERACTIVE 6 Jun Six clinical trial case studies with full explainability Six trials tracked from first filing to outcome, with every probability shift explained. RESEARCH 11 May Five drugs with clinical evidence and no commercial champion AppliedXL’s response to the FDA drug repurposing initiative. RESEARCH 9 May Clinical trial data as alpha: a biotech quant trading model 107 out-of-sample trades, +204% return, 1.32 Sharpe — built on point-in-time intelligence. BENCHMARK 9 Apr Vertical AI vs. general AI on biopharma agentic research AppliedXL’s floor beats Claude, ChatGPT, and Perplexity’s ceiling across 20 structured queries.
REPORTS
RESEARCH REPORT Biopharma’s Public Probability Prediction markets in drug development. 
THESIS Original Intelligence What stays valuable when AI can deliver anything. 
THESIS Who Will Monetize Truth? Truth as infrastructure at algorithmic scale. 
BOOK The Science of First Catching early signals before they become news. PREVIOUS UPDATES
2026 · 2024 15 Apr 2026 AppliedXL achieves state-of-the-art clinical trial prediction with domain-specific agentic AI 07 Dec 2024 Seeing risk before it becomes news 07 Dec 2024 Systematic trading strategies in biotech: early risk signals for alpha generation 07 Dec 2024 Spillover risk and readthrough alpha: a quantitative analysis 07 Dec 2024 AppliedXL partners with Bloomberg to integrate real-time biotech intelligence 07 Dec 2024 AppliedXL and Bain introduce a new operating discipline for pharma 06 Dec 2024 The hidden signals that decide drug success or failure