AppliedXL Provides Resolution Infrastructure for Kalshi Biopharma Markets

AppliedXL is providing resolution infrastructure for selected Kalshi prediction markets tied to clinical trial outcomes and FDA drug decisions.

For each supported market, AppliedXL collects and structures relevant clinical and regulatory records and produces a source-linked evidence package against the resolution criteria defined in the contract.

Kalshi determines which markets to list and the terms governing each contract. It reviews the evidence independently and retains responsibility for final market settlement under its exchange rules.

The pilot is initially focused on events that can be defined clearly in advance and evaluated against identifiable public sources.

From Public Record to Market Resolution

Clinical trial and regulatory outcomes are often documented across multiple sources and may emerge over time.

AppliedXL monitors those records, identifies relevant events and claims, and maps the available evidence to the contract’s predefined resolution criteria.

Sources may include FDA records, ClinicalTrials.gov, advisory committee materials, company disclosures, or other public sources identified in the contract terms.

Each piece of evidence retains its source, timestamp, lineage, and correction history. A human reviewer checks the resulting evidence package against the contract language and escalates incomplete, ambiguous, or conflicting information for additional review.

AppliedXL then submits its findings and supporting evidence to Kalshi for independent review and final determination.

Resolution Criteria Are Defined in Advance

Each contract specifies the question being resolved, the relevant deadline, and the criteria and sources that govern the determination.

The meaning of YES and NO is established before trading begins. Contract terms may also address delayed disclosures, conflicting sources, corrections, ambiguous evidence, and circumstances in which a market may be postponed or cancelled.

Kalshi’s contract terms and exchange rules govern the final outcome.

A Limited Pilot

The program is beginning with a limited set of biopharma events where the underlying outcome can be evaluated against defined public evidence.

AppliedXL may provide research on whether a proposed clinical or regulatory event can be resolved using sufficiently specific criteria and identifiable sources. Kalshi independently determines which markets to design and list.

AppliedXL employees are prohibited from trading in prediction markets, and the company does not take directional positions in contracts it supports. AppliedXL’s compensation for resolution work is independent of market outcomes, trading performance, and trading volume.

Kalshi is responsible for participant eligibility, market surveillance, enforcement, and settlement under its rules.

Biopharma's Public Probability

AppliedXL and Kalshi have also published Biopharma's Public Probability: The State and Future of Prediction Markets in Drug Development.

The report examines the use of prediction markets in biopharma, including potential applications, limitations, and risks related to market design, material nonpublic information, manipulation, clinical research, and ethical considerations.

The research incorporates perspectives from bioethicists, physicians, investors, and drug-development experts and discusses approaches to market selection, contract design, resolution, transparency, and oversight.

The report is an initial research contribution and may be updated as additional evidence becomes available.

Nothing on this page constitutes medical or investment advice or a recommendation to trade. AppliedXL does not operate an exchange, offer financial products, design or list Kalshi markets, or determine final market outcomes.