How a fact becomes a settlement
Prediction markets pay out based on defined questions about future events. For each contract, the outcome must be evaluated against rules and sources established before trading begins. AppliedXL supports that process by monitoring the public record, organizing the relevant evidence, and producing a documented resolution analysis. The exchange independently reviews that analysis and remains the sole and final adjudicator of every contract under its exchange rules.
This example shows how the process may work for a market asking whether a clinical trial met its predefined goal. All names, figures, dates, prices, and disclosures shown below are illustrative unless otherwise identified.
Relevant public sources are monitored over time.
AppliedXL monitors publicly available clinical and regulatory records for events that may be relevant to existing or potential markets: trial registrations, recruitment and status changes, amendments, timeline updates, regulatory documents, scientific disclosures, and publicly announced results. Large numbers of public updates are processed each day; most have no bearing on an open market. The system identifies potentially relevant events for further review rather than treating every detected update as conclusive.
The monitoring process is limited to public information. AppliedXL does not use identifiable patient data, confidential clinical records, private investigator communications, material nonpublic information, or undisclosed information supplied by a sponsor or other third party.
Potential markets are evaluated before listing.
A surfaced event is assessed against curation considerations developed with input from domain experts: whether the event can be defined objectively, whether enrollment has closed, whether endpoints and statistical criteria are sufficiently clear, whether the outcome can be evaluated using a named public source, and whether the market could affect patients, recruitment, investigators, or clinical conduct. These considerations are provisional rather than universal rules. AppliedXL evaluates candidates and may provide recommendations to the exchange; the exchange independently decides which markets to list and is responsible for the final contract terms.
The controlling terms are established before trading begins.
When the exchange lists a market, its official terms define the exact question, what constitutes YES and NO, the event deadline, the source or hierarchy of sources used to determine the outcome, the controlling endpoint definition, and how amendments, corrections, delays, and conflicting records will be handled. Later changes do not automatically alter the standard unless the contract terms expressly provide otherwise. Tap the card.
Potentially decisive information is checked against the contract terms.
A company announcement may describe a result positively while the underlying endpoint data show a more complicated outcome. Automated systems can detect and extract potentially relevant passages, but promotional language alone does not determine the result. AppliedXL compares the public evidence with the exact criteria established at listing.
…median overall survival did not reach statistical significance (HR 0.91, p = 0.14) versus the control arm…
A specialist reviews the analysis before it is submitted to the exchange.
The system produces a suggested determination and an evidence record. A qualified reviewer examines the official contract terms, the controlling public sources, the extracted evidence, source timestamps and versions, any amendments or conflicting records, and whether the analysis can be reproduced from the public record. The reviewer then signs AppliedXL’s recommended determination and records the basis for it in a time-stamped audit trail. AppliedXL’s sign-off completes its internal analysis. It does not settle the contract.
The exchange independently determines and finalizes the outcome.
AppliedXL submits its recommended determination and supporting evidence to the exchange. The exchange reviews the material under the applicable contract terms and rules — it may accept the recommendation, request further evidence, reach a different conclusion, or apply any other treatment permitted by its rules. The exchange remains the sole and final adjudicator. No contract pays out until the exchange finalizes the market outcome.
A documented path from source to recommendation.
AppliedXL’s role is to provide a source-linked, reviewable analysis based exclusively on the public record identified in the contract. The process is designed to show what information was monitored, which sources controlled, what criteria were established before trading, what evidence was found, how that evidence was interpreted, who reviewed the analysis, and what recommendation was submitted to the exchange.