From Public Record to Market Resolution
Prediction markets settle against questions defined before trading begins. AppliedXL supports that process by monitoring the public record, evaluating evidence against the contract terms, and producing a documented resolution recommendation. The exchange independently reviews the analysis and remains the sole and final adjudicator under its rules.
This example shows how the process may apply to a market tied to a clinical-trial outcome. All names, figures, dates, prices, and disclosures shown below are illustrative unless otherwise identified.
Relevant public sources are monitored over time.
AppliedXL monitors public clinical, regulatory, and scientific sources for developments that may affect existing or potential markets, including trial updates, amendments, regulatory records, and announced results. Most updates are not relevant to an open market. Potentially material events are flagged for review rather than treated as conclusive.
The process is limited to public information. AppliedXL does not use identifiable patient data, confidential clinical records, material nonpublic information, or undisclosed information from sponsors or other third parties.
Potential markets are evaluated before listing.
Before a market is listed, potential contracts are assessed for whether the outcome can be defined objectively, the endpoints and timing are clear, the controlling public sources can be identified, and potential effects on patients, recruitment, investigators, or clinical conduct have been considered. AppliedXL may evaluate candidates and provide recommendations. The exchange independently decides which markets to list and sets the final contract terms.
The controlling terms are established before trading begins.
Before trading begins, the official contract defines the question, what constitutes YES and NO, the event deadline, the controlling sources, the applicable endpoint criteria, and how amendments, delays, corrections, or conflicting records will be handled. Those terms, together with the exchange’s rules, govern the outcome. Tap the card.
Potentially decisive information is checked against the contract terms.
When potentially decisive information becomes public, AppliedXL compares the evidence with the criteria established in the contract. Company language alone does not determine the result. The analysis focuses on the underlying endpoint data, publication timing, controlling sources, and any other conditions required by the contract.
…median overall survival did not reach statistical significance (HR 0.91, p = 0.14) versus the control arm…
A specialist reviews the analysis before it is submitted to the exchange.
A qualified reviewer examines the contract terms, public sources, extracted evidence, timestamps, amendments, and any conflicting records before signing the recommended determination. The basis for the recommendation is recorded in a time-stamped audit trail. This completes AppliedXL’s analysis but does not settle the contract.
The exchange independently determines and finalizes the outcome.
AppliedXL submits its recommendation and supporting evidence to the exchange. The exchange independently reviews the record and may accept the recommendation, request additional evidence, or reach a different conclusion under its rules. The exchange remains the sole and final adjudicator, and no contract pays out until it finalizes the outcome.
A documented path from source to recommendation.
The record shows which sources controlled, what evidence was found, how it was evaluated, who reviewed it, and what recommendation was submitted to the exchange.