AppliedXL and biopharma event-contract resolution

Kalshi operates regulated event-contract markets tied to selected biopharma outcomes, including clinical trial readouts and FDA regulatory decisions.

AppliedXL provides resolution analysis for these markets. Its systems monitor the public sources identified in each contract, organize the relevant evidence, and assess that evidence against the contract’s predefined resolution criteria.

AppliedXL submits its analysis and supporting evidence to Kalshi. Kalshi operates the exchange and has sole authority to determine and finalize the outcome of each contract under its rules.

Event contracts settle according to predefined terms tied to real-world outcomes. Exchanges may rely on trusted external data providers, news organizations, official records, or other specified sources to establish what happened.

The source depends on the market. In U.S. elections, the Associated Press provides race calls, live vote counts, and election data used by news organizations and other institutions. In sports, specialist data providers such as Sportradar supply official league data and real-time results. Other markets may resolve directly against government records, regulatory databases, or another source identified in the contract terms.

Biopharma outcomes are documented across public institutional records, including clinical trial registries, FDA databases, regulatory documents, and advisory committee proceedings. AppliedXL provides the infrastructure to monitor those records, organize the evidence, and evaluate it against the applicable contract terms.

AppliedXL’s core infrastructure monitors institutional records, extracts structured information, and verifies events against defined standards.

Event-contract resolution applies that infrastructure to a specific question governed by predefined conditions. AppliedXL monitors the sources identified in the contract, organizes the relevant evidence, and assesses whether the available public record satisfies those conditions.

Resolution analysis is based exclusively on publicly available sources identified in the applicable contract terms before trading begins.

Depending on the market, these may include ClinicalTrials.gov records, FDA documents and databases, advisory committee records, other public institutional records, or an official company disclosure identified in the contract.

AppliedXL does not use private or identifiable patient-level data, confidential clinical trial records, material nonpublic information, analyst commentary, rumors, private communications, or undisclosed information provided by a sponsor or other third party.

Public records may contain aggregate clinical results. AppliedXL does not access or evaluate identifiable patient information.

The program launched in July 2026 and currently covers selected late-stage clinical trial outcomes, including Phase 3 primary endpoints, and FDA regulatory decisions.

The initial scope focuses on late-stage trials because their endpoints are typically predefined and documented in public records, making outcomes clearer to resolve than earlier-stage trials with more exploratory designs.

Clinical trial markets are listed only after enrollment has closed. This reduces the possibility that a publicly visible market could influence patient enrollment or physician referrals while a trial is still recruiting.

Trials that exclusively enroll patients under 18 are excluded.

Each contract identifies the question being evaluated, the applicable deadline, the public source or sources used for resolution, and the criteria governing the outcome before trading begins.

The pilot is designed to be evaluated as it operates. AppliedXL and Kalshi will continue to learn from the evidence and engage with researchers, clinicians, patients, bioethicists, market participants, and other experts as the framework develops.

The official Kalshi rules and individual contract terms govern.

Kalshi decides which markets to list and is responsible for contract terms, participant rules, and market operation.

AppliedXL may identify potential events and assess whether they appear suitable for reliable resolution against public records. Members of the public may also submit suggestions through Kalshi.

Identifying or suggesting an event does not guarantee that Kalshi will list a market.

Under the rules and procedures applicable to the pilot, Kalshi restricts participation by people who possess material nonpublic information about an event or who may be able to influence its outcome.

Depending on the contract, additional categories of participants may be restricted under the applicable market rules.

The precise restrictions are determined by Kalshi’s applicable rules and the terms of each market. Those official materials control.

Kalshi also applies participant-verification and market-surveillance procedures intended to identify prohibited or unusual trading activity.

No compliance system can eliminate the possibility of trading by someone with improperly obtained or undisclosed information.

AppliedXL employees are prohibited by company policy from participating in prediction markets.

According to the rules and procedures governing the current pilot, Kalshi applies participant eligibility restrictions, employment or identity-related verification, market surveillance, and restrictions on trading by people with material nonpublic information or the ability to influence an outcome.

Kalshi is responsible for its exchange surveillance, investigations, enforcement, and regulatory reporting.

The applicable Kalshi rules and individual contract terms provide the authoritative description of these controls and may change over time.

No.

Employment verification can identify certain direct relationships between a participant and organizations involved in an event, but it cannot identify every possible source of material nonpublic information.

Kalshi applies additional eligibility restrictions and market-surveillance procedures. The applicable exchange rules and contract terms govern those restrictions.

No.

AppliedXL employees are prohibited by company policy from participating in prediction markets. The policy applies to all prediction markets, not only contracts for which AppliedXL provides resolution analysis.

AppliedXL does not take a financial position in the outcome of a contract it supports.

Kalshi operates as a federally regulated designated contract market in the United States and is responsible for listing and operating its contracts under the applicable regulatory framework.

AppliedXL does not provide legal opinions concerning Kalshi’s contracts or an individual’s eligibility to participate.

Questions concerning regulatory status, legality, participant eligibility, or exchange rules should be directed to Kalshi or qualified legal counsel.

The pilot will be evaluated on more than market activity. AppliedXL will look at resolution quality, disputed or ambiguous outcomes, unintended effects, market functioning and signal reliability, as well as feedback from clinicians, researchers, patients, patient advocacy groups, bioethicists, and market participants.

Some questions can only be answered with evidence over time. What we learn will inform additional safeguards, changes to market design and communication, and the future scope of the program.

This is one of the most important questions in the program.

Clinical trial outcomes affect patients, families, researchers, physicians, patient advocacy groups, and companies developing new treatments. AppliedXL approaches the work with that broader context in mind.

Before the pilot launched, we engaged clinicians, bioethicists, academics, researchers, investors, and biopharma professionals to understand where prediction markets could be useful, where they could create unintended consequences, and what safeguards should be built into the program.

That engagement is continuing. We are speaking with clinicians, researchers, patient advocacy groups, patients, bioethicists, and other experts as the pilot develops. Their feedback is helping us evaluate how these markets are understood, how they may affect different stakeholders, and where additional safeguards or changes may be appropriate.

A market price is one signal about expectations around a defined future event. It is not clinical evidence, medical guidance, or a measure of whether a treatment is appropriate for an individual patient.

Market prices should not be used to make treatment decisions or decisions about whether someone should join, remain in, or leave a clinical trial. Those decisions belong within the clinical relationship between patients and qualified medical professionals.

AppliedXL’s role is focused on analyzing clearly defined public records against the terms established for each contract.

The pilot was designed around a set of principles intended to protect the integrity of the research process and keep the role of the market clearly defined.

Markets should focus on questions that can be resolved objectively against identified public records. The question, source, deadline, and resolution criteria are established before trading begins.

Participation requires strong controls. The framework includes restrictions intended to prevent people with material nonpublic information or the ability to influence an outcome from participating.

Market prices must remain clearly distinguished from medical and scientific evidence. They reflect the views and activity of market participants and may also be affected by liquidity, participation, timing, sentiment, and market structure.

The framework should continue to evolve as evidence accumulates. AppliedXL and Kalshi are continuing to engage with clinicians, bioethicists, researchers, patient advocacy groups, patients, and other experts as the pilot develops. That input, together with evidence from the operation of the markets themselves, will inform future safeguards, market design, eligibility rules, and the scope of the program.

A broader discussion of these considerations appears in the joint report, Biopharma’s Public Probability: The State and Future of Prediction Markets in Drug Development.

Potentially. A public probability could influence how investors, researchers, journalists, and others perceive a drug-development program.

It could surface information or disagreement that is difficult to see through conventional forecasting alone. It could also concentrate attention on larger, later-stage programs where information and liquidity are more readily available.

AppliedXL will evaluate available evidence and feedback about these effects as the program develops and continue engaging with researchers, patient advocacy groups, bioethicists, investors, and other experts. The impact on research investment and attention should be evaluated with evidence over time.

Resolution infrastructure refers to the technical and editorial systems used to monitor the public sources identified in a contract, detect relevant disclosures, organize the underlying evidence, compare that evidence with predefined contract terms, and produce a documented analysis.

AppliedXL provides infrastructure supporting this process. It does not replace Kalshi’s authority to determine and finalize a contract’s outcome.

Most binary event contracts settle as YES or NO. Official contract terms may also specify procedures for delays, corrections, ambiguity, cancellation, conflicting information, or other exceptional circumstances.

Biopharma outcomes can be documented across trial registries, FDA databases, advisory committee materials, regulatory filings, company announcements, and scientific publications.

Those sources may report information on different timelines and at different levels of detail. Statistical significance does not necessarily establish clinical significance. A company may characterize results positively while the underlying public record contains additional qualifications. A successful clinical trial also does not necessarily result in regulatory approval.

Reliable resolution therefore requires familiarity with the relevant sources, systematic monitoring, and close adherence to the exact question and criteria established in the contract.

Before trading begins, the contract terms identify the question, deadline, resolution criteria, and the source or hierarchy of sources Kalshi will use to determine the outcome.

Depending on the contract, those sources may include:

• A ClinicalTrials.gov record
• An FDA action document or public database
• An FDA advisory committee vote record
• Another official regulatory or institutional record
• An official company disclosure, when identified in the contract terms

AppliedXL monitors the identified sources, flags disclosures relevant to open contracts, and compares the available evidence with the contract’s predefined conditions.

A human reviewer examines the evidence and documents the basis for the analysis. Cases involving incomplete, corrected, delayed, ambiguous, or conflicting information receive additional review.

AppliedXL then submits its analysis and supporting public evidence to Kalshi. Kalshi reviews that material and has sole authority to determine and finalize the contract’s outcome under its rules.

Kalshi.

AppliedXL provides resolution analysis and the public evidence supporting its assessment. Kalshi has sole authority to determine and finalize the outcome under its exchange rules.

No.

Trading activity determines the market price. Resolution is based on the contract’s predefined terms and identified sources.

AppliedXL does not consider the market price, trading activity, or which participants would benefit from a particular outcome when conducting its resolution analysis.

AppliedXL documents the conflicting or revised information and evaluates it according to the contract’s predefined terms and source hierarchy.

AppliedXL does not change resolution criteria after an outcome becomes known or select a source based on which side of a market would benefit.

Kalshi determines how the applicable contract terms address delays, corrections, conflicting records, ambiguity, or other exceptional circumstances.

AI assists with tasks including source monitoring, document classification, information extraction, and matching new disclosures with open contracts.

No contract is resolved solely on the basis of an automated interpretation.

A human reviewer examines the relevant evidence and documents the analysis before AppliedXL submits it to Kalshi.

No. Pharmaceutical companies, researchers, and academics have experimented with prediction markets in healthcare and drug development for more than two decades.

In 2003, Eli Lilly ran an internal prediction market involving roughly 50 employees and six drug candidates. The market ranked the three candidates that would later prove most successful at the top.

Other experiments followed. The Iowa Electronic Health Markets used prediction markets to forecast influenza activity. In 2009, researchers associated with MIT Sloan launched Pharmer’s Market, bringing together pharmaceutical researchers, scientists, academics, clinicians, and financial analysts to forecast whether individual breast-cancer drugs would progress through clinical development. During the COVID-19 pandemic, prediction markets and forecasting platforms were also used to track vaccine and other public-health outcomes.

What is newer is the emergence of public, regulated markets systematically tied to specific clinical trial and regulatory outcomes. The current pilot builds on that history while evaluating what is required for these markets to operate responsibly in a broader public setting.

Markets may address defined questions such as whether a clinical trial meets a specified primary endpoint, whether the FDA approves a named drug by a specified date, the outcome of an FDA advisory committee vote, or another clinical or regulatory milestone documented in an identified public record.

The question, deadline, source, and resolution criteria are established in the official contract terms before trading begins.

Kalshi determines which markets are listed.

There are similarities. Biotech and pharmaceutical investing is often closely tied to expectations about specific catalyst events, including clinical trial readouts, FDA decisions, advisory committee votes, and other regulatory milestones. Investors routinely form views about the likelihood of those outcomes, and those expectations can have a significant effect on company valuations.

A biopharma event contract makes that question more explicit. Rather than taking a position in the overall value of a company, a contract can isolate a specific, predefined outcome, such as whether a trial meets a specified primary endpoint or whether the FDA approves a drug by a particular date.

An investment in a pharmaceutical or biotechnology company remains exposed to many other factors. Its value can reflect financing, management, commercial expectations, pipeline breadth, other clinical programs, competitive developments, broader market conditions, and events unrelated to the catalyst being evaluated.

An event contract therefore provides a more direct way to express a view on a defined outcome, while an equity investment represents exposure to the company as a whole.

The underlying science is also more complex than a binary contract. Clinical evidence can involve multiple endpoints, statistical and clinical significance, safety findings, protocol considerations, and other factors.

A contract price should not be treated as a perfect measure of the probability of the underlying scientific or regulatory outcome. Prices may also reflect liquidity, participation, timing, sentiment, market structure, and other factors.

AppliedXL’s probability of success is a model output derived from clinical, regulatory, and scientific evidence, including trial design, enrollment, protocol changes, site activity, sponsor track record, mechanism and indication precedent, and regulatory history.

The model does not use stock prices, options activity, analyst targets, or prediction-market prices as inputs. Its probability changes when the underlying clinical or regulatory evidence used by the model changes.

A Kalshi market price is produced through trading. It reflects the price at which participants are willing to buy or sell and may incorporate information, assumptions, expectations, liquidity, sentiment, and other factors.

They are separate measures and should not be expected to produce the same value.

AppliedXL’s probability model does not determine how a Kalshi contract settles. Resolution is a separate process governed by the contract’s predefined terms and identified sources.

Neither a modeled probability nor a market price should be treated as clinical evidence or as a recommendation concerning a drug, clinical trial, security, or event contract.

No.

AppliedXL does not provide investment, legal, or medical advice. Its data, models, forecasts, and resolution analysis are not recommendations to buy or sell a security or event contract, participate in a clinical trial, or make a medical decision.

AppliedXL is compensated by Kalshi for data resolution services supporting the biopharma program.

AppliedXL’s compensation is independent of the outcome of any contract, market performance, or trading volume. AppliedXL does not receive greater or lesser compensation based on whether a contract resolves YES or NO, how a market trades, or the amount of activity in a market.

No.

AppliedXL is a public-intelligence company that monitors institutional records and turns them into structured signals, forecasts, and verified outcomes.

Prediction-market resolution analysis is one application of that infrastructure.

The underlying infrastructure can potentially be applied to other regulated domains where outcomes can be evaluated against clearly defined public records.

AppliedXL does not trade in prediction markets and does not take financial positions in the contracts it supports. Its employees are prohibited by company policy from participating in prediction markets.

AppliedXL’s compensation for data resolution services is independent of contract outcomes, market performance, and trading volume.

Resolution analysis is based on the contract terms and public sources identified in advance. AppliedXL does not use market prices, trading activity, or the financial interests of participants when evaluating whether the identified evidence satisfies those terms.

The evidence supporting each analysis is documented and submitted to Kalshi. Kalshi retains sole authority to determine and finalize the contract outcome.

Yes. AppliedXL may work with subject-matter experts, academics, newsrooms, and other organizations to strengthen methodology and the interpretation of public information.

For a specific resolution, the evidence used to determine whether the contract criteria have been satisfied must come from the publicly available sources identified in the applicable contract terms.

Outside contributors involved in a resolution cannot provide material nonpublic information, trade on information obtained through the resolution process, or participate in determining the final market outcome.

For trial and regulatory coverage, see Biopharma News or the AppliedXL platform.

Published resources include:

• Partnership announcement
• How AppliedXL Resolves Prediction Markets, visual explainer
• From Public Record to Market Resolution, step-by-step resolution example
• Biopharma’s Public Probability, joint report