Kalshi, AppliedXL, and biopharma prediction markets

Kalshi operates regulated event-contract markets tied to selected biopharma outcomes, including clinical trial readouts and FDA regulatory decisions.

AppliedXL provides independent resolution analysis for these markets. Our systems monitor the public sources identified in each contract, organize the relevant evidence, and assess whether the contract’s predefined conditions appear to have been met.

AppliedXL submits its analysis and supporting evidence to Kalshi. Kalshi operates the exchange and remains the sole and final adjudicator of every contract under its rules.

Read the announcement.

Resolution is based exclusively on publicly available sources identified in the contract terms before trading begins.

Depending on the market, these may include ClinicalTrials.gov records, FDA documents and databases, advisory committee records, other public institutional records, or an official company disclosure expressly named in the contract.

AppliedXL does not use private or identifiable patient-level data, confidential clinical trial records, material nonpublic information, analyst commentary, rumors, private communications, or undisclosed information provided by a sponsor or another third party.

Public records may contain aggregate clinical results, but AppliedXL does not access or evaluate identifiable patient information as part of the resolution process.

Expectations about drug development are produced by pharmaceutical companies, banks, investors, researchers, and specialist analysts. Many of those estimates remain private, while parts of the public clinical record are incomplete or delayed.

In April 2026, the FDA reported that 29.6% of studies it considered highly likely to be subject to mandatory reporting requirements had no results information submitted to ClinicalTrials.gov. This figure applies to a defined category of overdue studies, rather than all clinical trials.

A publicly traded contract can provide a visible, continuously updated market-implied probability for a defined event. That price reflects current trading activity. It should not be treated as scientific consensus, clinical evidence, or a prediction guaranteed to be accurate.

Biopharma prediction markets raise questions that extend beyond trading. A visible market price could affect how patients, physicians, researchers, or investors perceive a clinical trial. People with access to material nonpublic information may also have an unfair advantage.

AppliedXL and Kalshi consulted clinicians, bioethicists, academics, investors, and biopharma R&D and strategy professionals to examine risks including:

• insider trading and unequal access to information;
• possible effects on patient enrollment or physician referrals;
• the treatment of vulnerable patient populations;
• market manipulation or attempts to influence an outcome;
• ambiguous or unreliable contract design;
• the possibility that market prices could be mistaken for medical or scientific evidence.

These risks cannot be eliminated entirely. The pilot therefore begins with a limited scope and includes predefined outcomes, named public sources, employment verification, participation restrictions, human review, and a clear separation between AppliedXL’s analysis and Kalshi’s final adjudication.

The research, expert perspectives, and proposed safeguards are documented in the joint report, Biopharma’s Public Probability: The State and Future of Prediction Markets in Drug Development.

Potentially. A market price could influence perceptions of a treatment or trial, even though it does not establish whether a treatment is safe, effective, or appropriate for an individual patient.

To reduce this risk, the initial pilot focuses on selected late-stage trials with publicly registered endpoints and generally considers clinical trial markets only after enrollment has closed. This is intended to reduce the possibility that a visible price could influence recruitment or physician referrals.

Market prices should never be used to make treatment decisions or determine whether someone should join, remain in, or leave a clinical trial. Those decisions should be made with qualified medical professionals using appropriate clinical information.

AppliedXL and Kalshi plan to review the pilot’s effects and update the framework as they receive feedback from experts, patients, and other stakeholders.

The initial pilot focuses on selected late-stage clinical trial outcomes and FDA regulatory decisions that can be evaluated against clearly identified public sources.

A potential market must have:

• an objectively defined question;
• criteria established before trading begins;
• a sufficiently reliable public record;
• a source, or hierarchy of sources, named in the contract terms;
• a level of ethical and integrity risk considered appropriate for the pilot.

Some events may be unsuitable because the outcome is ambiguous, the relevant information is unlikely to become public, the event can be influenced by a small group, or the contract could create unacceptable risks for patients or clinical research.

Late-stage status alone does not make a market appropriate. Each candidate must still be assessed for verifiability, integrity, and potential impact.

AppliedXL may identify potential events and evaluate whether they appear suitable for clear and reliable resolution.

Kalshi independently decides which markets to list and is responsible for the contract terms, participant rules, market operation, and final settlement.

Members of the public may also submit market suggestions through Kalshi. A suggestion is reviewed by Kalshi and is not guaranteed to be listed.

Markets may cover clearly defined events such as:

• whether a clinical trial meets a specified primary endpoint;
• whether the FDA approves a named drug by a specified date;
• the outcome of an FDA advisory committee vote;
• another clinical or regulatory milestone documented in an identified public record.

The precise question, deadline, source, and resolution criteria are defined in the official contract terms.

A biopharma contract focuses on a specific, predefined event, such as whether a trial meets its primary endpoint or whether the FDA approves a drug by a particular date.

That differs from owning a company’s stock, whose price can be affected by management, financing, other pipeline assets, market conditions, and many additional factors.

A contract can make expectations around one event more visible, but it does not perfectly isolate the underlying science. Prices may also reflect liquidity, trader participation, timing, sentiment, and the design of the contract.

No. AppliedXL does not provide investment, legal, or medical advice.

Its data, models, and resolution analysis are not recommendations to trade any contract or security or to make a medical decision.

Prediction-market prices and modeled probabilities are estimates of uncertain future outcomes. They are not statements of fact about the safety, effectiveness, or likelihood of approval of any drug.

They are produced differently and serve different purposes.

AppliedXL’s probability of success is a model output derived from specified clinical, regulatory, and operational data using a defined methodology.

A Kalshi market price is produced through trading and reflects the prices at which participants are currently willing to buy or sell the contract.

One is model-driven and the other is market-driven. Neither is a statement of scientific fact, and AppliedXL’s probability model does not determine how a Kalshi contract settles.

Resolution infrastructure refers to the technical and editorial systems used to:

• monitor the public sources identified in a contract;
• detect potentially relevant disclosures;
• organize the underlying evidence;
• compare that evidence with the contract’s predefined terms;
• produce a documented and reviewable analysis.

AppliedXL’s infrastructure supports the resolution process. It does not replace Kalshi’s authority to determine and finalize the outcome.

Most binary event contracts are designed to settle as YES or NO. The official contract terms may also address delays, corrections, ambiguity, cancellation, or other exceptional circumstances.

Learn more on the Resolution page.

Clinical and regulatory outcomes are often disclosed across trial registries, FDA records, advisory committee materials, regulatory filings, scientific publications, and company announcements.

A trial may meet a statistical endpoint without establishing clinical significance. A company may announce positive results while the underlying public record remains incomplete. A successful trial also does not necessarily result in regulatory approval.

Evaluating a contract therefore requires domain knowledge, systematic monitoring, and close adherence to the contract’s exact language and identified sources.

Before trading begins, the contract terms identify the question, deadline, resolution criteria, and source, or hierarchy of sources, that Kalshi will use to determine the outcome.

Depending on the contract, those sources may include:

• a ClinicalTrials.gov record;
• an FDA action document or public database;
• an FDA advisory committee vote record;
• another official regulatory or institutional record;
• an official company disclosure, when expressly identified in the contract terms.

AppliedXL monitors the named public sources, flags disclosures relevant to open contracts, and compares the available evidence with the contract’s predefined conditions.

A human reviewer examines the evidence and documents the basis for the analysis. Cases involving incomplete, corrected, delayed, or conflicting information receive additional review.

AppliedXL does not rely on rumors, analyst interpretations, confidential communications, private clinical records, or material nonpublic information. The analysis is limited to the public record identified in the contract terms.

AppliedXL then submits its analysis and supporting evidence to Kalshi. Kalshi independently reviews that information and remains the sole and final adjudicator under its exchange rules.

See a worked example: How a Fact Becomes a Settlement.

Kalshi does.

AppliedXL provides independent analysis, a recommended determination, and the public evidence supporting it. Kalshi has sole authority to determine and finalize the outcome under its rules.

No.

Trading activity determines the market price, but it does not determine the contract’s outcome. Settlement is based on the contract’s predefined terms and identified public sources.

AppliedXL documents the conflicting information and evaluates it according to the contract’s predefined terms and source hierarchy.

AppliedXL does not change the criteria after the outcome becomes known or select a source based on which side of the market benefits.

Kalshi determines how the applicable contract terms address delays, corrections, conflicting records, or ambiguity. The official terms and exchange rules govern in every case.

AI assists with monitoring, document classification, information extraction, and matching new public disclosures with open contracts.

No contract is finally adjudicated solely on the basis of an automated reading. AppliedXL applies human review to its resolution analysis, and Kalshi independently makes and finalizes the settlement determination.

The analysis is limited to publicly available information identified in the contract terms. AppliedXL does not use identifiable patient data, confidential trial records, material nonpublic information, or private communications to analyze an outcome.

Kalshi requires participants in these biopharma markets to complete employment verification as an additional integrity measure.

Kalshi’s rules also restrict trading by people who possess material nonpublic information relevant to a contract or who have the ability to influence its outcome. The precise eligibility restrictions and prohibited categories are governed by Kalshi’s rules and the terms applicable to each market.

Kalshi is responsible for exchange surveillance, investigation, enforcement, and regulatory reporting. Traders are responsible for reviewing and complying with the applicable rules.

No. Employment verification is one preventive control within a broader compliance and surveillance framework.

A person may obtain material nonpublic information through consulting work, vendors, professional relationships, household members, or other channels that are not apparent from an employer’s name alone.

Employment verification must therefore operate alongside trading restrictions, surveillance, investigation, enforcement, and reporting procedures.

No.

AppliedXL employees are prohibited by company policy from participating in prediction markets, not only the contracts for which AppliedXL provides analysis.

AppliedXL does not take a financial position in the outcome of a contract it supports.

Kalshi is responsible for exchange surveillance, investigation, enforcement, and regulatory reporting.

AppliedXL does not conduct exchange surveillance or determine whether a participant has violated Kalshi’s rules.

Kalshi operates as a federally regulated designated contract market in the United States and is responsible for listing and operating its contracts under the applicable regulatory framework.

AppliedXL does not provide legal opinions concerning Kalshi’s contracts or an individual’s eligibility to trade.

Questions about contract legality, regulatory status, participant eligibility, or trading restrictions should be directed to Kalshi or qualified legal counsel.

No.

AppliedXL is a public-intelligence company that monitors institutional records and turns them into structured signals, forecasts, and verified outcomes.

Prediction-market resolution analysis is one application of that infrastructure.

The resolution service is powered by the same underlying technology but uses a defined subset of AppliedXL’s public-record infrastructure.

It tracks upcoming clinical and regulatory catalysts and documents how they resolve, including trial success or failure and regulatory approval or rejection.

The underlying capability can apply to other regulated domains where outcomes can be evaluated against clearly defined and authoritative public records.

Any future application would require domain-specific criteria, source standards, conflicts policies, and human expertise. Safeguards developed for biopharma should not automatically be assumed to apply to another field.

AppliedXL may work with subject-matter experts, academics, newsrooms, and other organizations on methodology, public-source interpretation, and the broader study of resolution systems.

Any contribution to a specific resolution process must be subject to appropriate conflict checks. Contributors must not provide material nonpublic information, trade on information obtained through the process, or control the final adjudication.

Any evidence used to analyze a contract must come from the publicly available sources identified in its terms. Kalshi remains the final decision-maker for every contract.

For trial and regulatory coverage, see Biopharma News or the AppliedXL platform.

Kalshi and AppliedXL have also published:

• Biopharma’s Public Probability: The State and Future of Prediction Markets in Drug Development;
• How a Fact Becomes a Settlement, a step-by-step resolution example;
• the official partnership announcement.